The Real Reasons Behind China's New Child Policy; #china

 China announced Thursday it was reversing its one-child policy, a controversial rule implemented 35 years ago aimed at taming its exploding population.

While the policy has been blamed for forced sterilizations and abortions, China's gender imbalance, and child trafficking, the government's decision to end it is largely symbolic. Here's what you need to know about the change, which will allow all married couples to now have two children and is expected to be approved by the country's parliament in March.

It didn't come out of nowhere.

At 1.4 billion people, China is the world's most populous country. The one-child policy was introduced in 1979 with the goal of relieving the strain the population was putting on demands for water and other resources. According to the government, about 400 million births have been prevented thanks to the one-child rule.

The policy has been a cornerstone of the Chinese Communist Party, and has had a a huge impact on Chinese society, economy and identity. But exemptions, especially in the last five to ten years, have watered it down.

Rural residents and ethnic minorities have long been allowed to have more than one child without penalty — if their firstborn was female. More recently, in 2013, couples who were each single children themselves were allowed to have two children.

As the middle class expanded and as incomes grew, many couples developed the means to give birth outside China, from as close as Hong Kong to as far as the U.S., spawning the birth tourism industry. In this sense, the Chinese Communist Party's decision to eradicate the one-child policy was long overdue. And the Party was aware.

In 2013, the government announced it was folding the National Population and Family Planning Commission — which supervised the one-child policy — into the Health Ministry. And, just as significantly, the government decided to shift responsibility for demographic planning to China's chief economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission.

It's an economic decision.

Economics is key to understanding why China has decided to forego a longstanding policy that has been, ultimately, too successful: It's resulted in a shrinking population. One of the challenges that has contributed to pressure for the country to transition from a low-end manufacturing giant to a consumer-led economy is because it hasn't been able to sustain a cheap labor pool.

There simply aren't enough young people to reinforce the labor pool for factory work in unskilled jobs.

Second, the aging population there has no safety net. Despite its communist badge, the Chinese government does not look after the elderly.

The burden of taking care of the elderly has fallen squarely on the shoulders of their offspring. With each couple bearing only one child, that child now is solely responsible for caring for both parents instead of sharing the burden with siblings.

It may be irrelevant.

Many couples simply can't afford to have another child. In 2007, NBC News interviewed couples for a story about family planning and asked them whether they would want to have more than one child. Many said they did not. Raising offspring in cities like Beijing or Shanghai was already very expensive, and those parents wanted to give the very best of everything to the one child they had.

Minor relaxing of the policy in 2013 were greeted with a similar response.

"We lack a safe social net to support a family with two children," Wang Tao, a 35-year-old Beijing native, told NBC News in 2013. "China doesn't provide a pension or free education."

Demographers said the change might not be able to reverse the declining fertility rate.

"The good news is, it is here. The bad news is, it is too little, too late," Cai Yong, a sociology professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, told the Associated Press.

How it could impact U.S. adoptions.

China is the biggest source of adoptions for families in the U.S. who are adopting internationally. According to the State Department, from 1999 to 2013, nearly 72,000 babies were adopted into the U.S. from China. Of those adopted, 88.9 percent of the children were female — a reflection of Chinese families' centuries-long preference for sons.

Other countries have clamped down on adoptions to the U.S.: Russia stopped adoptions to the U.S. in 2012, and South Korea has turned its focus to domestic adoption, said Dr. Jane Aronson, CEO of Worldwide Orphans Foundation.

That has created a long waiting list for Chinese babies — American families wait an average of seven years if they want to adopt a healthy infant with no special needs, Aronson said.

The change to China's one-child policy will likely result in even fewer babies available for international adoptions. But, Aronson said, "it could take a long time for that."

Nbcnews.com

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#China Seeks to Calm Markets as It Devalues Its Currency for a 3rd Consecutive Day

HONG KONG — China on Thursday sought to ease the turbulence its depreciating currency, the renminbi, has set off in global markets, even as it pushed the renminbi lower for the third day in a row.

China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, set the renminbi’s official exchange rate to the dollar lower by 1.1 percent on Thursday, bringing the total devaluation since Tuesday to 4.4 percent, the biggest drop in decades.

At an unusual ad hoc press conference, however, officials from the central bank were at pains to explain that the currency had not entered a free fall.

“The central bank has withdrawn from the normal mode of intervention,” Yi Gang, the deputy governor of the bank and the head of the unit that runs China’s foreign exchange system, told reporters in Beijing. “But if you say the market has commonly recognized rules of the game, then those are still the rules that we lay out.”


Mr. Yi was referring to changes to China’s currency system that were announced on Tuesday, as the bank devalued the renminbi by nearly 2 percent. It was the biggest daily drop since 1994, when China’s modern currency system began.

Previously, the central bank would assign a value to the currency each morning, and would allow it to trade up or down by a maximum of 2 percent against the dollar. In practice, it barely budged more than a fraction of percentage point each day.

Now, policy makers have said they are giving the market a bigger say by basing the official exchange rate setting on the currency’s trading performance, not just on a government decree.

Still, central bank officials made clear on Thursday that while they intended to ease their grip somewhat, they would not end it.

On Wednesday, when the renminbi showed signs of weakening by the maximum 2 percent limit, the central bank was widely reported to have jumped into the currency market, selling dollars to push up the value of the renminbi — which rapidly recovered to close only 1 percent lower.

Mr. Yi did not directly comment on any intervention when asked about it on Thursday, but hinted it was a tool still at the central bank’s disposal. “When there’s excessive volatility in the market, it can still be effectively managed,” he said.

Nytimes.com

It's time for the US to partner with China in space

The future of America's space program is at a critical point in time; decisions are being made that will affect our ability to successfully maintain our leadership in human space flight, our national security and our capability to successfully compete with the international community in the commercial use of space.

What does the future hold for U.S. human spaceflight? The United States had been the undisputed leader in space exploration for several decades, until recently.

With the completion of its last flight in July of 2011, the space shuttle has been arbitrarily retired. And today, Russia is the only partner in the International Space Station program that is able to transport astronauts and cosmonauts to and from low Earth orbit (LEO).

The space shuttle amassed an impressive record of achievement during its lifetime, culminating in the very successful assembly of the space station. It was a very versatile spacecraft that allowed the crews to perform extravehicular activities (EVAs), assemble structures in space, repair satellites and perform spacecraft retrieval missions.

In addition, the shuttle was also a superb research platform, especially when equipped with a Spacelab or Spacehab module. It could carry a cargo of 60,000 pounds (27,000 kilograms) to orbit or return a cargo of equal weight to Earth.

In its place the U.S. is developing Orion, referred to as a Multipurpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). Orion returns the nation to flying capsules that return to Earth via parachutes using technology from the 1960s. It has no capability to carry cargo, support EVAs, do structural assembly in space, accomplish satellite repair or retrieval missions. It returns to Earth by parachute, landing in the water, as Orion is too heavy to be recovered on land.

The MPCV is supposedly being developed for exploration missions beyond Earth orbit but it provides no protection from space radiation for the crew. The first planned human flight is currently scheduled for 2021. That date is dependent upon the availability of a new Space Launch System (SLS) rocket that is yet to be developed.

Currently, only funds for research, development and risk mitigation have been awarded for SLS, which raises the question of whether or not the launch system will ever be developed at all.

NASA is also providing funding to three commercial space endeavors. Some impressive achievements have been made. Most notably SpaceX having succeeded in its first operational cargo delivery mission in October 2012. These commercial enterprises, with one exception, also employ 60s technology capsules returning by parachute to water landings. These programs at best are several years away from Initial Operational Capability (IOC) for manned flights. And they are all currently dependent on being funded by the government.

Thus, we can expect that "The Gap" in U.S. human spaceflight capability that started with the end of the last space shuttle mission in July 2011 will likely last another five years or longer. In the meantime, fortunately, Russia continues to fly and support the flights of American astronauts to space.

When considering the future direction of NASA one point is quite clear. The construction of the ISS is now complete and the United States should maximize the utilization of the station. Research aboard ISS will help answer the questions and provide solutions that will enable future long duration flights out of Earth orbit.

One of the primary reasons for bringing the Russians into the station program was the desire to have dual access to the station. The dual access provided by the space shuttle and the Russian Soyuz is the only reason we have a space station flying today. The shuttle was able to fulfill a need when Russia experienced launch vehicle problems, and the Soyuz, in a similar fashion, fulfilled a need when the space shuttle was unable to fly.

Dual access is critical to ensure the maximum utilization of the space station.

This year China demonstrated manned rendezvous and docking, flying a crew of three (which included China's first female astronaut) to their crew-tended Tiangong-1 orbital vehicle. China plans to launch the larger Tiangong-2 in 2013 and Tiangong-3, a Zvezda-class core module in 2020.

The U.S. is at a decision point. On its present course, the United States will lose at least the perceived leadership role in human space exploration. But there is an alternate path and one that would again provide for dual access to the space station.

The U.S. could lead the way to bring China into the ISS program, and lead the work to adapt the Shenzhou spacecraft to be compatible with the ISS. The U.S. would continue funding the three commercial space endeavors to supplement and support the logistic needs of the station.

This path would allow the U.S. to retain its leadership position in the current human spaceflight program (on the ISS) while it re-evaluates the real needs of an optimized exploration program. A program that would transition the ISS partnership, with all its capabilities, to a beyond-LEO program with the United States remaining as the lead partner.

Thomas Reiter of the European Space Agency has already stated that ESA plans to hold a series of meetings with the China National Space Administration and explore closer cooperation in the areas of astronaut training, spacecraft docking and developing life support systems. ESA would also like China to become a member of the ISS program if U.S. objections can be overcome.

When Canada hosted the ISS Heads of Agencies Meeting on March 1 in Quebec City, Canada, Jean-Jacques Dordain, director-general of the ESA, told reporters, "I am in favor of seeing how we can work together with China. It will take some steps, but it will come, I am sure."

Vladimir Popovkin, head of the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, also said the day will come when China and India will work together with the five current partners — the United States, Russia, Canada, Japan and the ESA. "We are not a closed club," he said. "Our doors are wide open."

A partnership with China could be developed along the same lines as was done with integrating the Russian space program into the ISS partnership. Using this model, no military-sensitive technology would be transferred. China's economy would allow for it to fully fund its own efforts. Thus there would be little increased expense to the United States for developing this advantageous relationship.

As Joan Johnson-Freese, a professor of national security affairs at the Naval War College and author of numerous books on space, including "Heavenly Ambitions: America's Quest to Dominate Space" (University of Pennsylvania Press), told CNN on June 20, prohibiting NASA by law from working with China makes no sense:

"If one believes that China and the United States are not inherently enemies, then working together on space projects — with technology transfer controls — will benefit both countries. If one believes that China is inherently a threat to the United States, then the adage "keep your friends close and your enemies closer" comes to mind. The script for U.S.-China relations — and space relations in particular — is constantly evolving. The United States can influence the direction, but only if we engage and persuade the Chinese to engage with us. It's one way of preventing a scenario of a galactic Wild West in which China has become the world's leader in space."

It is clear the United States' international partners see the benefits of working with the Chinese on the space station; it is time for the United States to provide the leadership to make it a reality.

George W.S. Abbey is the Baker Botts Senior Fellow in Space Policy at the Baker Institute, at Rice University. From 1996 to 2001, he served as the director of NASA Johnson Space Center. His NASA career spanned the US human spaceflight program from Gemini and Apollo, through the space shuttle and International Space Station programs.

Dr. Leroy Chiao is a former NASA astronaut and ISS commander. He served as a member of the 2009 Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee, and is the special adviser for human spaceflight to the Space Foundation. He holds appointments at Baylor College of Medicine and Rice University.

© 2012 Discovery Channel

Msn.com

China’s Economy Expands 8.9 Percent

BEIJING — As much of the world continues to claw its way out of recession, China enjoyed another stretch of robust expansion in the third quarter, growing 8.9 percent from the previous year, according to government figures released on Thursday.

The country’s faster growth was largely fueled by increased bank lending, generous government support for exports and a 4 trillion yuan, or $585 billion, stimulus package that is spurring a dizzying array of building projects.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the rate of expansion jumped from 7.9 in the second quarter, which would put the nation on target to reach the 8 percent target that Chinese economists say is required to maintain healthy employment and social stability.

The United States economy, by contrast, shrank by a revised 0.7 percent during the second quarter, although third-quarter figures, when released next week, are expected to show a 3.1 percent annual rate of expansion.

The indications of strong growth in China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy, exceeded the expectations of government ministers.

“Investment played an important and positive role in maintaining relatively fast growth and reversing the slowdown,” Li Xiaochao, a bureau spokesman, said in announcing the figures. He said domestic consumption contributed to about a third of the growth.

Separate economic reports showed that retail sales and industrial output rose markedly in September, helping to offset the slump in exports, a mainstay of the Chinese economy, that has continued unabated for 11 months.

Even as China celebrates its rosy fiscal health, government economists have expressed some concern that liberal lending by the state-controlled banking system, which has given out a record $1.27 trillion in new loans this year, could require some reining in. Some analysts have warned that too much of that money has ended up in the stocks and real estate, fueling a 73 percent rise in property values in the mainland this year.

Earlier this week, the State Council, China’s Cabinet, said it would place greater curbs on a number of industries, including steel, cement and glass production, essential ingredients for the ongoing construction boom that some experts say has become overheated.

By ANDREW JACOBS